Gianluca Baio
Professor of Statistics and Health Economics
Department of Statistical Science
University College London
I am a Professor of Statistics and Health Economics in the Department of Statistical Science at University College London. I graduated in Statistics and Economics from the University of Florence (Italy). I then completed a PhD programme in Applied Statistics again at the University of Florence, after a period at the Program on the Pharmaceutical Industry at the MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge (USA). I then worked as a Research Fellow and then Lecturer in the Department of Statistical Sciences at University College London (UK).
My main interests are in Bayesian statistical modelling for cost effectiveness analysis and decision-making problems in the health systems, hierarchical/multilevel models and causal inference using the decision-theoretic approach.
I lead the Statistics for Health Economic Evaluation research group within the department of Statistical Science. Our activity revolves around the development and application of Bayesian statistical methodology for health economic evaluation, e.g. cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis. We work in close collaboration with academics both within UCL and at other institutions and our activities include a series of seminars aimed at statisticians, health economists and clinicians working in economic evaluations. I collaborate with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) as a Scientific Advisor on Health Technology Appraisal projects.
I have served as Secretary (2014-2016) and then Programme Chair (2016-2018) in the Section on Biostatistics and Pharmaceutical Statistics of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. I currently serve as an Associate Editor for the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A) and am a member of the Editorial Board of Significance, the magazine of both the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association. I also am a member of the Scientific Committee of the Bayes Workshop and a member of the technical sub-group tasked by the NHS Medical Director to review the statistical and methodological aspects related to the use of the Summary Hospital-level Mortality Indicator.
From September 2021, I’ll officially take over as the Head of the UCL Department of Statistical Science.
My personal view of the world is that statisticians should be in charge of everything. And, come to think about it, Bayesian statisticians should be in charge of all statisticians.
And brexit sucks.
Interests
- Bayesian statistics
- Health economic evaluation
- Causal inference from observational data
- Philosophy and history of statistics
Education
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PhD in Applied Statistics, 2005
University of Florence
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BSc/MSc Statistics and Economics, 1998
University of Florence
Last updated: 21 Apr 2021
Latest
- Comparison of parametric survival extrapolation approaches incorporating general population mortality for adequate health technology assessment of new oncology drugs
- Forecasting Population Need for Mental Health Care: A Bayesian Methodology Applied to the Epidemiology of Psychotic Disorders in England
- Joint Longitudinal Models for Dealing With Missing at Random Data in Trial-Based Economic Evaluations
- Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy in Patients with Advanced COPD. Bayesian Modeling of the Healthcare Resource Utilization Data and Associated Costs from the IMPACT Trial
- Predictive-Adjusted Indirect Comparison: A Novel Method for Population Adjustment with Limited Access to Patient-Level Data
- survHE: Survival analysis for health economic evaluation and cost-effectiveness modelling
- Estimating Individual Treatment Effects using Non-Parametric Regression Models: a Review
- Cannabidiol for the treatment of cannabis use disorder: Phase IIa double-blind placebo-controlled randomised adaptive Bayesian dose-finding trial
- Summarising salient information on historical controls: A structured assessment of validity and comparability across studies
- Estimating weekly excess mortality at sub-national level in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information Efficiently: Practical Guidance and Recommendations for Four Model-Based Methods
- Methods for Population Adjustment with Limited Access to Individual Patient Data: A Simulation Study
- Forecasting Population Need for Mental Health Care: A Bayesian Methodology Applied to the Epidemiology of Psychotic Disorders in England
- Why counting coronavirus deaths is not an exact science
- Are Missing Data Properly Accounted for in Health Economics and Outcomes Research?
- Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information in Practice: Considerations from three case studies
- Impact of Being Eligible for Type 2 Diabetes Treatment on All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events: Regression Discontinuity Design Study
- Practical Considerations for the Efficient Computation of the Expected Value of Sample Information to Prioritize Research in Health Care
- The effects of model misspecification in unanchored Matching Adjusted Indirect Comparison (MAIC); Results of a simulation study
- Bayesian Background
- Bayesian methods in pharmaceutical research
- Bayesian Modeling for Economic Evaluation Using "Real World Evidence"
- Economic Evaluation and Cost-Effectiveness of Health Care Interventions
- Application of Regression Discontinuity Design with Time-to-Event outcome
- Dirichlet Process Mixture Models for Regression Discontinuity Designs
- R you still using Excel? Why we need modern software tools for health technology assessment
- A Bayesian parametric approach to handle missing longitudinal outcome data in trial-based health economic evaluations
- A comparative review of network meta-analysis models in longitudinal randomized controlled trial
- Bayesian modelling for binary outcomes in the Regression Discontinuity Design
- Bayesian Statistical Economic Evaluation Methods for Health Technology Assessment
- Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information in Practice: Considerations from Three Case Studies
- Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information Efficiently: Expertise and Skills Required for Four Model-Based Methods
- Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Across Different Sample Sizes Using Moment Matching and Nonlinear Regression
- Frequentist and Bayesian meta-regression of health state utilities for multiple myeloma incorporating systematic review and analysis of individual patient data
- A Full Bayesian Model to Handle Structural Ones and Missingness in Economic Evaluations from Individual-Level Data
- Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information using Efficient Nested Monte Carlo: A Tutorial
- A dynamic Bayesian Markov model for health economic evaluations of interventions in infectious disease
- Modelling Outcomes of Soccer Matches
- Uptake of the English Bowel (Colorectal) Cancer Screening Programme: an update 5 years after full roll-out
- Calculating the Expected Value of Sample Information using Efficient Nested Monte Carlo: A Tutorial
- Cost-effectiveness modeling for neuropathic pain treatments: investigating the relative importance of parameters using an open-source model
- Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information across Different Sample Sizes using Moment Matching and Non-Linear Regression
- Incidence and prevalence of diabetes and cost of illness analysis of polycystic ovary syndrome: a Bayesian modelling study
- Statistical Modeling for Health Economic Evaluations
- A Bayesian Parametric Approach to Handle Missing Longitudinal Outcome Data in Trial-Based Health Economic Evaluations
- A Full Bayesian Model to Handle Structural Ones and Missingness in Economic Evaluations from Individual-Level Data
- Research protocol: investigating the feasibility of a group self-management intervention for stroke (the GUSTO study)
- The prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome in reproductiveaged women of different ethnicity: a systematic review and meta-analysis
- An Efficient Calculation Method for the Expected Value of Sample Information: Can we do it? Yes, we can
- Development and evaluation of a manual for extended brief intervention for alcohol misuse for adults with mild to moderate intellectual disabilities living in the community: The EBI-LD study manual
- Evaluating the benefits of community based aerobic training on the physical health and well-being of people with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A: a pilot randomised controlled trial
- Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with the R package BCEA
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of the nine-valent HPV vaccine in Italy
- A feasibility randomised controlled trial of extended brief intervention for alcohol misuse in adults with mild to moderate intellectual disabilities living in the community; The EBI-LD study
- The association between psychological stress and miscarriage: A systematic review and meta-analysis
- Value of sample information as a tool in clinical trial design
- A Review of Methods for the Analysis of the Expected Value of Information
- Effectiveness of an intervention to facilitate prompt referral to memory clinics in the United Kingdom: Cluster randomised controlled trial
- Handling Missing Data in Within-Trial Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Review with Future Recommendations
- A comparative review of variable selection techniques for covariate dependent Dirichlet process mixture models
- Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation of the Expected Value of Sample Information Using Moment Matching
- Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation of the Expected Value of Sample Information using Moment Matching
- Network Meta-Analysis Across Longitudinal Time Points: A Comparison of Available Methods
- A Bayesian Nonparametric Model for White Blood Cells in Patients with Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms
- Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information in health economic evaluations using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation
- Evaluating the Benefits of Community Based Aerobic Training on the Physical Health and Well-Being of People with Neuromuscolar Disease
- Evaluating the benefits of community based aerobic traning on the physical health and well-being of people with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease Type 1A
- Normative aerobic excercise value in CMT
- Diagnosis and management of polycystic ovary syndrome in the UK (2004-2014): a retrospective cohort study
- Regulatory approval of pharmaceuticals without a randomised controlled study: analysis of EMA and FDA approvals 1999–2014
- Cost per median overall month of survival in multiple myeloma patients with $>$= 3 lines of therapy or were double refractory
- Economic evaluations of pharmaceuticals granted a marketing authorisation without the results of randomised trials: a systematic review and taxonomy
- Variable selection in covariate dependent random partition models: an application to urinary tract infection
- An Introduction to Handling Missing Data in Health Economic Evaluations
- Approaches to the Estimation of the Local Average Treatment Effect in a Regression Discontinuity Design
- Bayesian modelling for binary outcomes in the Regression Discontinuity Design
- Do GPs Adhere to the Guidelines? A Study Based on Statins Prescriptions
- Handling Missing Data in Within-Trial Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: a Review with Future Guidelines
- Health Data Entanglement and artificial intelligence-based analysis: a brand new methodology to improve the effectiveness of healthcare services
- The Regression Discontinuity Design in Epidemiology
- Treatment of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in UK Primary Care 2004-2012
- When simple becomes complicated: Why Excel should lose its place at the top table
- A dynamic Bayesian Markov model for health economic evaluations of interventions against infectious diseases
- Comparison of computer-assisted planning and manual planning for depth electrode implantations in epilepsy
- Urinary ATP as an indicator of infection and inflammation of theurinary tract in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms
- A Systematic Review and Taxonomy of Economic Evaluations of Pharmaceuticals Licensed on The Basis of Uncontrolled Clinical Studies
- Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness Profile of a Vaccination Programme with a Nine-Valent HPV Vaccine in Italy
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal human papillomavirus vaccination using a dynamic Bayesian methodology: The BEST II study
- Evaluating the benefits of community based aerobic training on the physical health and well-being of people with neuromuscular diseases: A pilot study
- Uptake of Bowel Scope (Flexible Sigmoidoscopy) Screening in the English National Programme: the first 14 months
- Value of Information: A Tool to Improve Research Prioritization and Reduce Waste
- Designing a stepped wedge trial: three main designs, carry-over effects and randomisation approaches
- Five questions to consider before conducting a stepped wedge trial
- Sample size calculation for a stepped wedge trial
- Stepped wedge randomised controlled trials: systematic review of studies published between 2010 and 2014
- Variable Selection for Covariate Dependent Dirichlet Process Mixture of Regressions
- A Review of Methods for the Analysis of the Expected Value of Information
- An Educational Review of the Statistical Issues in Analysing UtilityData for Cost-Utility Analysis
- Estimating the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Health Economic Evaluations using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation
- A predictable outcome
- Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: incorporating clinicalknowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data
- Cost-effectiveness and affordability of community mobilisation throughwomen's groups and quality improvement in health facilities (MaiKhandatrial) in Malawi
- Extended brief intervention to address alcohol misuse in people with mild to moderate intellectual disabilities living in the community (EBI-ID): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial
- Health utilities lost and risk factors associated with HPV-induceddiseases in men and women: The HPV Italian collaborative study group
- Monetary costs of agitation in older adults with Alzheimer's diseasein the UK: prospective cohort study
- Variable Selection in Covariate Dependent Random Partition Models:an Application to Urinary Tract Infection
- Non-pharmacological interventions for agitation in dementia: systematicreview of randomised controlled trials
- The effect of herd immunity in different human papillomavirus vaccinationstrategies: an economic evaluation of the BEST II study
- Evidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votesusing Bayesian hierarchical models
- A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of sensory, psychological and behavioural interventions for managing agitation in older adults with dementia
- Bayesian models for cost-effectiveness analysis in the presence of structural zero costs
- Telomere length in human blastocysts
- Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: Incorporating clinicalknowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data
- Preformulated implementation intentions to promote colorectal cancerscreening: A cluster-randomized trial
- Regression discontinuity designs: an approach to the evaluation of treatment efficacy in primary care using observational data
- Spatial and spatio-temporal models with R-INLA
- Risk factors influencing the viral transmission and the potential development of HPV-induced pathologies
- Evaluating the benefits of community based aerobic training on the physical health and well-being of people with neuromuscular diseases: a pilot study
- Loss of health utilities due to HPV-induced diseases in men and women: a multicenter Italian study
- Erratum: The Bayesian Model on HPV Vaccination in Italy Lacks Transparency (Medical Care (2012) 50 (1076-1085))
- Transparency or proper study valuation procedures missed?
- Cost-effectiveness of enhancing adherence to therapy with blood pressure-lowering drugs in the setting of primary cardiovascular prevention
- Correction: Economic Burden of Human Papillomavirus-Related Diseases in Italy
- Methodological issues for the economic evaluation of health interventions: A concise state of the art
- Novel health economic evaluation of a vaccination strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases: The BEST study
- Bayesian Methods in Health Economics
- Economic burden of human papilloma virus-related diseases in Italy
- The prevalence of primary angle closure glaucoma in European derived populations: A systematic review
- Socioeconomic variation in uptake of colonoscopy following a positive faecal occult blood test result: a retrospective analysis of the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme
- Governance of preventive Health Intervention and On time Verification of its Efficiency: the GIOVE Study
- Strategy for power calculation for interactions: application to a trial of interventions to improve uptake of bowel cancer screening
- Centre Sampling Technique in Foreign Migration Surveys: A Methodological Note
- Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economics
- Inequalities in the provision of cardiovascular screening to people with severe mental illnesses in primary care: cohort study in the United Kingdom THIN Primary Care Database 2000-2007
- Inequalities in participation in an organized national colorectal cancer screening programme: results from the first 2.6 million invitations in England
- Bayesian modelling assessing the effectiveness of a vaccination strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases: The BEST study
- Improving adherence in osteoporosis: a new management algorithm for the patient with osteoporosis
- Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results
- Metodi statistici per la valutazione economica in sanità [Statistical methods for health economic evaluation, in Italian]
- Review of effectiveness and cost effectiveness: Increasing the uptakeof HIV testing to reduce undiagnosed infection and prevent transmissionamong black African communities living in England
- Un modello di analisi del valore dell'informazione per la valutazionedi costo-efficacia nell'ambito del processo regolatorio
- Health economic evaluation of the treatment of osteoporosis in five Italian regions
- A decision-theoretic framework for the application of cost-effectiveness analysis in regulatory processes
- A semantic approach for the homogeneous identification of events in eight patient databases: a contribution to the European eu-ADR project
- Discontinuity and failures of therapy with bisphosphonates: joint assessment of predictors with multi-state models
- Bayesian Latent Class Model to Measure Social Integration of Immigrantsin Italy
- Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economics
- Economic evaluation of a Bayesian model to predict late-phase success of new chemical entities
- Handling manipulated evidence
- An Introduction to Bayesian Modelling for Social Sciences
- Object Oriented Influence Diagram for Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Influenza Vaccination in Italian Elderly Population
- Economic evaluation of HIV treatments: the I.CO.N.A. cohort study
- Medical Devices Competitiveness and Impact on Public Health Expenditure
- Economic evaluation of HIV treatments: The I.CO.N.A cohort study
- The economic evaluation of influenza vaccination in the elderly population: A model based on Bayesian Networks
- Pharmacoutilization and costs of osteoarthritis: changes inducedby the introduction of a cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor into clinicalpractice
- Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis based on the persistence with antihypertensive treatment
- Persistence with anti hypertensive drug treatment: An evaluation based on a Bayesian cost-effectiveness approach
- [Evaluation model of the effect of Rofecoxib on the co-prescriptionof gastroprotective agents observed during the treatment of osteoarthritis].
- Cost allocation in antihypertensive drug therapies
- A retrospective, population-based analysis of persistence with antihypertensivedrug therapy in primary care practice in Italy.
- Long-term persistence with antihypertensive drugs in new patients.
- Modello valutativo dell'effetto sulla co-prescrizione di gastroprotettoriosservato durante il trattamento dell'artrosi con rofecoxib
- Valutare l'efficacia degli interventi in sanità [Evaluating effectivenessin health, in Italian]
- Una prima valutazione economica dell'impiego di rofecoxib versusFANS convenzionali nell'artrosi