Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results

Abstract

The problem of modelling football data has become increasingly popularin the last few years and many different models have been proposedwith the aim of estimating the characteristics that bring a teamto lose or win a game, or to predict the score of a particular match.We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to fulfil both these aimsand test its predictive strength based on data about the ItalianSerie A 1991-1992 championship. To overcome the issue of overshrinkageproduced by the Bayesian hierarchical model, we specify a more complexmixture model that results in a better fit to the observed data.We test its performance using an example of the Italian Serie A 2007-2008championship. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Publication
Journal of Applied Statistics
Gianluca Baio
Gianluca Baio
Professor of Statistics and Health Economics