Bayesian statistics

Bayesian Methods in Health Economics

Check out my book (published with CRC - available also on Amazon, in ebook format too) Table of contents Preface Get a promotional code - save 20% when ordering online from CRC website Read a sample for free BCEA - an R package to run Bayesian health economic evaluations (used throughout the book and specifically in the examples) Some discussion of the book in the blog can be found here, here, here and here The book has received excellent reviews, for example by Patrick Graham

Bayesian Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with the R package BCEA

Check out our book on the BCEA R package published by Springer in the UseR! series. This book is co-authored by myself, Andrea Berardi and Anna Heath. Table of contents Preface Get a promotional code - save 20% when ordering online from Springer website Read a sample for free BCEA - an R package to run Bayesian health economic evaluations (used throughout the book and specifically in the examples) Journal editors, journalists or bloggers can request a free Online Review Copy of the book.

Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research

Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research, edited by Emmanuel Lesaffre, Bruno Boulanger and Gianluca Baio and published by CRC, collates contributions by leading researchers in the various aspects of Bayesian modelling within the pharmaceutical industry. The book covers all main areas of pharmaceutical development, from pre-clinical to post-marketing studies, highlighting the Bayesian contributions and advantages and will be out in early 2020. More to come in here too!

Books and code

This comes as the results of two external forces that have prompted me to do some work on the website — specifically the section on books. The first one is the newest version of hugo-academic (which is the engine underlying the whole of my website, together with the R package blogdown). This has a new facility that can be used to format books or tutorial or documentation. Trouble is that it assumes that you’re writing a book and so if you have a folder named “book” it automatically use that new format for the pages in that folder.

CannaBayes trial

Our paper on the CBD trial has just been published in The Lancet Psychiatry (and found its way through the media, for example here or here). Basically, the objective was to determine whether (a specific dose of) CBD was a safe treatment for cannabis addition (I’d already talked about this here and here). This has been quite a long process — I think even before I got involved there has been lots of work put in.


This is quite exciting: since Nathan (this is his very interesting blog) has arrived to UCL a couple of months ago, we’ve started to work on quite a few of very interesting projects — including a major “refactoring” of the code for BCEA. I’m obviously very attached to BCEA — it’s basically my first R package and one I’ve spent lots of time thinking about and then working on. And I think it’s usually very helpful to practitioners and I always push people around to try and get them to use it.


This is now borderline very old, although sadly not out of trend… In May/early June, Marta, Michela, Monica and I, together with colleagues at the Italian Statistical Institute, have worked on a paper to model the excess mortality due to COVID-19, in Italy. I think this is something that lots of people have done/tried to do — not that we’ve done it better necessarily; but I think it’s important and interesting to realise that there is no such as thing as the “true” excess mortality (due to anything, for that matter).

Open day

Although the world is very complicated right now, we’re still planning ahead for the next academic year — particularly for the new cohort of HEDS. We are setting up a Virtual Open Data on the 25 June at 1pm BST. Interested potential candidates will have an opportunity of chatting with our staff and current students to learn more about our programme and find out what it’s like to study at UCL (spoiler alert: it’s awesome — though I would say that, wouldn’t I?


I’ve been trying to put this off for as long as I possibly could, because I didn’t really want to surrender… BUT: It’s come to the time when I need to accept defeat and that this year we won’t be able to have our summer school in Florence. Hopefully, by July things will have improved massively (with regards to everything — not simply for non-essential travel!), but it’s obvious right now that even if people could travel (which probably they won’t be able to), it would be too much of a hustle and it would take away from the normally very pleasant experience.

missingHE update

Andrea has just released a major update for missingHE (this is my own fork of the main project — but now available on CRAN too), the package we (well, mostly he!) have (has) developed to handle missing data in Bayesian models for cost-effectiveness analysis. Additions to the basic structure of the package include multilevel models and new plotting facilities, revolving around posterior predictive checks, which are of course very helpful when assessing the performance of models with missing data.